Berowra – Australia 2028

Berowra, at the last two elections, had above-average swings to Labor. Berowra used to be a blue-ribbon Liberal seat. The gap between the Liberal 2PP and the statewide Coalition 2PP has shrunk significantly over the election cycles.

Hornsby (the main commercial centre) is trending towards Labor. There are teal-ish areas along the eastern edge of the electorate i.e. along Pennant Hills Road and the Northern (Train) Line as well as the Pacific Motorway. The more western, semi-rural areas are where the Liberal vote is holding up.

This is another seat that the Liberals will lose for dumping net zero.

Interestingly Berowra and Goldstein are the only 2 seats left that voted for the Republic that the Liberals still have. Goldstein is the only one left that voted for the Voice.

I wonder if Julian Leeser will walk away from the Liberal Party? He has shown himself to be principled.

I have great personal respect for Julian Leeser if i lived in Sydney i probably will live in either this seat or Mitchell as they are the most simmilar to my seat of Menzies. I would be torn as i would like him as my MP but cannot vote for a party which is more ONP lite these days or worse a DLP style party. I had the same dilemma with Keith Wolahan who i personally liked but Dutton was too toxic.

Moderates are allowed to say Net Zero is a “welcome outcome” what is that?

Leeser seems to be like Matt Kean, the former Liberal state member for Hornsby who was a moderate and stood firm on his principles. I wonder if Leeser may eventually defect from the Liberals and recontest his seat as an independent in 2028, similar to current ex Nationals MP for Calare Andrew Gee.

@SpaceFish: With the Liberals having dumped net zero target, Labor could win Berowra in 2028 if they run a targeted campaign, especially if Sussan Ley is replaced as Liberal leader by a more right-wing Liberal such as Hastie or Taylor or if Ley adopts right-wing populism to appease the conservatives. If independent Tina Brown does not run again, a targeted Labor campaign could win over most of Brown’s voters and boost Labor’s primary vote into the high 30s and be well placed to win.

@Joseph, I agree with Labor’s possibility of picking up the seat but this also depends on Labor’s popularity in 2028. This could be a longer-term Labor target since Hornsby LGA and Epping are trending politically left (away from the Liberals). Historically, Berowra was a blue-ribbon, safe Liberal seat.

I mentioned earlier that there is a teal-ish demographic especially towards the south and eastern edge of the seat. Julian Leeser’s personal vote (and moderate nature) might’ve saved him in 2025. However, moderate, small-l Liberal voters who held their noses to vote Liberal may not do so again.

Late last year i thought this seat and Mitchell were Labor targets. As i mentioned this is one of only 2 seats that voted for the Republic other being Goldstein that Libs have left. It is also one of the few seats along with Mitchell and La Trobe that has a significant CALD community. Labor is less popular now and MRP polling says that this seat and Mitchell will be among the few Libs have left. Interestingly it only one of 3 Coalition seats along with Mitchell and Goldstein that have more than 40& of people with University degrees so demographically it is quite different to remaining Coalition seats. I think this seat is ONP proof along with Mitchell.

@Nimalan, I think this seat seems to have a sizable cohort that is socially conservative but without the nationalism as indicated from the support for Same Sex Marriage being below the National Average but also having an above National Average for Yes Vote to Voice and Republic. Although it does seem to have a sizable One Nation pocket as well in the Northwestern part of the seat.

@ Marh
I agree i believe Menzies is the closest seat to this and Menzies had a below average support for SSM the only only real difference is that Menzies goes much further South to include Box Hill etc while only a small part of this seat is South of the M2. I think Eastern Freeway and M2 are analogous. I feel that part of the reason for low support for SSM is that affluent ethnic communities choose areas like this and Manningham is that ethnic communities avoid places like Sutherland Shore where they feel there is Nationalism. The Hills District is also an area that is socially Conservative but not Nationalist.

@Nimalan, I think Labor could target this seat following demographic changes, the collapse in the Liberal vote and also to shore up their seat count, following the rise of One Nation.

It will be a classic Liberal vs Labor contest in my view. I have this as a tossup because the drop in the Liberal vote will be greater than the drop in the Labor vote if polling numbers eventuate.

I can see a massive ONP vote and swing away from the Liberals in the semi-rural suburbs north and west of Dural. It has lots of tradies and market gardeners. It is quite Christian and has few migrants.

There are teal-ish areas along the eastern edge of the electorate i.e. along Pennant Hills Road and the Northern (Train) Line as well as the Pacific Motorway.

@ Votante
I agree with your analysis. I also would agree that Libs will drop more than Labor . I do think there is some densification in Epping and Honsby as they are major rail interchanges. However, the other stations on line are quiet stations with low density.
Fun Fact
This seat has the 3rd lowest % of Rented Dwellings after Casey and Moore and has a high % of dependent children living it home.
I do agree it will be a classical contests. I feel any seat over 25% of people with University degrees will not ONP make 2CP with one notable exception Lalor which I will get to in a minute
So Banks, Bonner, Sturt, Boothby, Deakin, Chisholm, Aston, Menzes, Bennelong, Reid, Liley, Tangney, Swan will all remain classic constests. I also think Moore, Hughes and Cook will be classic contests.

Re Lalor while it has an above average % of University educated residents i think that is concentrated in the new Housing estates where there are South Asians and Filipinos while the more Anglo areas like Werribee are blue collar where ONP will have appeal.

@Nimalan, Lalor could be an interesting seat to watch between the old-timer Anglos and the newer immigrants given the current surge of nationalism is due to the recent wave of Indian Immigrants. However I think the resentment from the recent migration wave of Indians will soon finally begin to die down as they begin to settle in which in turn decreases the support for Pauline Hanson. This was the case for Hanson’s First stint which she helped create resentment towards East and South East Asian Immigrants but as more Australians finally see they are settling in, the resentment declined and in turn Hanson support declined as well.

@ Marh
I agree thats why i think Lalor and the state seat of Werribee may become ALP V ONP seats. You are correct in 1996 the 40% figure of alll migrants coming from Asia (1984-1995) that Hanson cited to argue her case included South Asians and interestinly my family came duing the Hawke years so she would have cited my parents as well. However, you correct South Asians made a much smaller % of the immigration intake, Today about it 60% from the Asian countries but South Asians make up a higher share about 9% of the intake in the period Hanson cited came from South Asia versus 35% today. I think you are right the resentment will decrease as time passes and more of the community is seen as settled with their kids mixing with Anglo kids in the school grounds and sports ground like you correctly stated happened with East and South East Asians in the past. I also think when there are good economic times resentment decreases once reason Hanson declined in the 2000s in the good times came especially the mid 2000s. In 1988 Howard came up with the One Australia policy and made comments on the rate of Asian migration he recieved a huge backlash and lost the leadership over it again i think the late 1980s was a boomtime and someone like Hanson could not have gained success then.

@Nimalan, recently Pauline Hanson made a statement saying just a bit more than half of Australians have a least a parent born overseas which is then used to justify her anti-immigration sentiment but the thing that often gets left out is that is this is more to do with the post-war phase of the White Australia Policy rather than the recent wave of immigrants. Afterall, Australia is still probably the Whitest Nation outside of Europe due to demographic impacts of the White Australia Policy and majority of the new arrivals were from a western country up until 20 years ago with even that 40% Hanson referenced was largely due to Indochinese Refugees alongside the family reunion and to a lesser extent Mainland and Hong Kong Chinese due to the 1989 Tiananmen Square Incident.

@ Marh
You are correct it was a silly statement as that figure also includes people coming from NZ under the Trans Tasman Travel agrement. I do agree with possible exception of Uruguay it is the Whitest nation outside Europe. You are correct that 40% included geopoltical events like aftermath of Vietnam war and Indochinese. A lot later came under family reunion visas when initial members came up under refugee program. The impending handover of Hong Kong was another event and HK was the second most common source of immigrants from Asia in 1995 and Menzies where i grew up was shaped in the 90s by that immigration a lot of my friends from school had moved around that time. I think there was also a Sri Lankan wave in that era as that concides with the Civil War so once some Sri Lankans were accepted as either or refugees others came under Family Reunion. That is the reason why compared to other South Asians, Sri Lankans have a much larger share of Australian born with about 35% of Sri Lankan Australians being Australian born and even some third generation children now.

@Nimalan, I think most middle ring seats in metropolitan Sydney and Melbourne as well as the seats of Perth and Adelaide and their neighbours will be classic Labor vs Liberal contests. In QLD, seats like Bonner, Lilley and Morton are sure to be classic contests.

It will be interesting to see how the Liberals handle the immigration debate and counter the rise of One Nation. It could make or break their chances in seats like Berowra or Mitchell.

@ Votante
I agree with your analysis. Labor is currently reviewing their immigration points based system so once it is realised i will be curious on how they respond. I think Angus Taylor is not sure on the multicultural/monoculture debate and i think Libs are divided on this. Berowra and Mitchell are the only two highly educated and diverse seats Libs have left. La Trobe is not as well educated and has rural areas while Goldstein is not diverse despite being highly educated.
I personally feel Moore and Hughes are best chances for a Liberal pick up from Labor they have about 28% University educational attainment which is only slightly above average but tend to be homeowning and less diverse.